Increasing CSA evidence.

We’re working to increase the availability and use of CSA evidence. Vuna have commissioned and are publishing research on key topics that impact on climate change, the agriculture sector and the East and Southern African region.

Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change

Internal project ref number: 6924-EL01

Active period and status: Project implementation completed – March 2016 to February 2017

The main aim of this work was to summarise existing knowledge in a form useful for practitioners, investors and makers. The main objective of this project was to promote a common, shared understanding of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in ESA, and the opportunities for achieving more CSA.
Vuna and its partners need a common understanding of the likely and potential impacts of climate change on agriculture in East and Southern Africa in order to better prioritize CSA investments in the region. The objective of this project was to summarize the main results of international modelling efforts, maps and databases for climate change in the region, and review the expected changes in rainfall, temperature, droughts and flooding. Further to produce these in a form useful for practitioners, investors and makers.

Target Problem:
Multiple models, maps, datasets and reports exist demarcating the likely impacts of climate change in ESA. These offer varying views of the extent and timing of changes in key climatic parameters such as rainfall and temperature. Various dataset and analyses differ in their views of the impacts of climate change on agricultural livelihoods. Estimates vary regarding the likelihood of climatic shocks such as flooding and drought. A better understanding of these is essential to inform priorities for investment in CSA.

Summary approach:
This project targeted the production of two Evidence and Learning Reports. The project undertook a comparative review of the findings of the major international models depicting the impacts of climate change in ESA. This included consideration of the anticipated level and timing of changes in temperature and rainfall, as well as the changing probabilities of drought and flooding. This analysis was complemented with an assessment of the possible need for transformational adaptation of farming systems in response to more significant changes in temperature and rainfall regimes in the region. These findings were discussed at an international workshop on transformational adaptation in January 2017.

Results / findings to date:
A long draft of the overview of climate trends and impacts on agriculture was completed, and presented to the Vuna team in April 2016. This was redrafted into a briefer discussion paper for circulation was completed in November 2016. A report on transformational adaptation was completed in July 2016. A follow up report on the evolving risks of agricultural drought was commissioned (represented as EL12 below). Two two-page information briefs were also developed. The two main Evidence and Learning Reports and information briefs will be broadly distributed and findings will be discussed in national and regional fora.